Doomer

A Doomer is a peakist (one who has peak oil related concerns that oil depletion will lead to a severe economic recession or another Great Depression) that also believes that a Malthusian Catastrophe will inevitably follow. Doomers attribute their beliefs to humanity's over reliance on petroleum for agricultural and industrial productivity. Many doomers are also survivalists.

Use of the term

The term is commonly used in peakist forums by way of introduction. Example: "Hi, I'm a Doomer from way back — I was convinced by the Club of Rome in the 1970s". Or it can also be used to describe a more momentary feeling. Example: "I think we can survive Peak Oil — but when I hear all the cliché denial from my friends I feel a bit more Doomer." It can also be used in a rather eyeball-rolling fashion by other survivalists who feel that doomers are odd even by survivalist standards.

Common themes

A convinced Doomer believes that the Green Revolution will collapse at the end of cheap oil. According to Doomers, humanity will be in a state of overshoot after oil depletion makes modern farming methods economically unviable. Various academics have calculated that our numbers would then far exceed the carrying capacity of the earth. For example: they believe our situation is comparable to bacteria in a petri dish with cheap oil as the human growth medium. As the “growth medium” is consumed and runs out the “bacteria” dies off.

Doomers also hold a wide range of theories about the collapse of complex societies and systems. The influences of Thomas Malthus and the Club of Rome are present in the doomer movement, as are some of the more recent works by Joseph Tainter who wrote The Collapse of Complex Societies in 1988, and Richard C. Duncan who presented his Phd The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge in 1989 (now known as the Olduvai theory.) The lectures and DVD by Albert Bartlett, Arithmetic, Population and Energy is also highly influential. (See video)

The common concerns are that of overpopulation leading to resource and energy depletion, soil degradation and environmental destruction all culminating in agricultural collapse and famine. Some Doomers estimate that the anarchic collapse will be so catastrophic that population levels may fall below the levels prior to the industrial revolution — possibly below 2 billion. When trying to calculate the extent of the postulated dieoff, the most extreme doomer will also take into account that the existing eco-infrastructure is massively supported by oil based fertilizers and that we will not only hit peak oil but peak phosphate and peak nitrogen simultaneously. When oil production starts to decline the productivity of the soil will drop far below that of pre-industrial times and thus a drop down to 2 billion is optimistic. This kind of doomer will also ignore technology and dismiss it with commonly believed ideas such as "wind farms cost more energy to build than they get out". This common refrain is generally applied to all technology solutions since it is assumed a priori that a population crash is inevitable.

Survivalist mindset

The typical Doomer response to peak oil and the collapse of the industrial system is to “ignore civilization to death” by setting up a Permaculture village. This Survivalist-esque mindset is what distinguishes the Doomer from the Peakist. The Peaknik may spend many hours campaigning for peak oil awareness, societal change and changes in government policy, while Doomers would generally see this as a waste of valuable time. The Doomer focus is more on preparing the family and local community for the imminent collapse of civilization.

The spectrum between Peakists and Doomers

A purist Doomer concentrates on their "Lifeboat" survivalist permaculture farm. If the purist Doomer raises awareness at all, it is to selectively encourage necessary tradespeople to join their eco-village, sharing their vital skills with their village to add to their security. Some Doomers call for making active Survivalist preparations to be ready to survive a protracted societal collapse.

This tension between optimism and pessimism is appreciated by Peakist author Richard Heinberg in his book, Powerdown, who argues that local communities should immediately learn how to provide for their own power, water, and food security, while also campaigning for awareness on a State, Federal, and International level. Richard Heinberg admits that the ideal situation would be for the United Nations and Federal Governments to step in and institute a massive "war-time economy" shifting the industrial world from oil dependency. However he argues that there is the strong possibility that societal awareness is all too little too late to prevent "dieoff". As the future is so uncertain, Heinberg argues that the wisest course of action for the local community is to prepare for the implosion of modern infrastructure while also campaigning to prevent this disaster.

The more convinced Doomer would typically refer to the peakist movie The End of Suburbia as peak oil lite — for those who cannot handle their peak oil straight. While the last 15 minutes of The End of Suburbia focuses on the local community solutions of New Urbanism, the Doomer would argue that the movie fails to describe the inevitable Malthusian catastrophe. The Doomer protests that The End of Suburbia implies suburban sprawl will experience an orderly transition into New Urbanism. The convinced Doomer rejects this outright as an ecological and energetic impossibility without the Green Revolution and cheap oil transport.

See also

• Survivalism

External links

• The LATOC Peak Oil "Doomer" Forum
• Discussion of "Doomer" term
• Doomsters(sic) - A journal article discussing peak oil and "Doomsters"
• So Very Doomed - Real doomers caught in the act of dooming.
• Embracing the Doom:What kind of Doomer am I? Defining and differentiating doomer kind